According to Eurofer's latest forecast, steel demand in Europe is expected to grow by 0.4% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, following stronger-than-expected growth of 4.4% in 2025, as continued weakness in the automotive sector offsets growth in construction, published on June 25.
Projected steel consumption in the EU in 2025 reached 134 million metric tons, driven by exceptional factors, including a sharp increase in imports in the second half of the year. However, consumption remains about 10 million tons below pre-pandemic levels, while crude steel production last year fell to a record low of 125.8 million tons, down 2.9% from the same period last year.
Eurofer said the modest growth forecast for 2026 reflects ongoing economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and weak industrial demand. Real steel consumption is expected to increase by 1.4% in both 2026 and 2028. 2027.
"The modest improvement in demand should not be confused with a genuine recovery," said Axel Eggert, CEO of the European Steel Producers Association (EUROFER).
"Manufacturing remains weak, energy prices remain high, and uncertainty related to global trade and geopolitical tensions continues to put pressure on investment and industrial activity."
Industrial demand remains under pressure
Demand from the steel industry declined again by 0.1% in 2025, which means a decline for the second year in a row. Although a slight improvement of 1.3% is forecast for 2026, a more significant recovery is not expected earlier than 2027.
Construction, the EU's largest steel-consuming sector, is expected to continue to grow in 2026, increasing by 1.5%, despite the interest rate hike linked to accelerating inflation. In 2025, this sector grew by 1.3%. The automotive sector remains the weakest of the main steel consumers, with output declining for six consecutive quarters. Production decreased by 9.7% in 2024 and by another 4.3% in 2025, partly due to production cuts and uncertainty about U.
S. tariffs and weak production conditions. A further 0.2% decline is expected in 2026, and recovery is expected no earlier than 2027, when output is projected to grow by 2.9%. As a largely export-oriented industry, the EU's automotive supply chain remains particularly vulnerable to energy and trade shocks, Eurofer said.
Record import growth
Steel imports accounted for 37% of total steel consumption in the fourth quarter of 2025, the highest level